Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nebitci · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Nebitci are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Aşgabat are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 3.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Nebitci hold a 6.0-point power-rating edge (35.9 v 29.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.7% in the Ýokary Liga, while Nebitci holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Nebitci
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
13.7%
Nebitci has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
GF 11 · GA 17 · avg 2.20/3.40