Nashville SCvs
Sporting Kansas City
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/15/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nashville SC · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-0 (15%), 3-0 (14%), 5-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nashville SC 4-0 Sporting Kansas City
Original prediction
Nashville SC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.22 | 77.5% | 62.1% | -15.4 pts |
| Draw | 6.85 | 13.8% | 20.1% | 6.4 pts |
| Away | 10.72 | 8.8% | 17.8% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–015%
- 2.3–014%
- 3.5–012%
Predicted outcome
Nashville SC
Probability
62.1%
Model confidence
62.1%
Nashville SC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00