Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Napoli · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Napoli 3-0 Frosinone
Original prediction
Napoli
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.47 | 64.8% | 39.5% | -25.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.77 | 20.0% | 25.8% | 5.8 pts |
| Away | 6.28 | 15.2% | 34.8% | 19.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Napoli
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Napoli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NapoliDWLLL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
FrosinoneWWDWD
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
NapoliFrosinone
46.7Attack60.0
60.0Defence73.3
46.7Form66.7
53.0Power67.2
1.06xG1.33