Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Napoli · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Napoli 1-2 Como
Original prediction
Napoli
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.54 | 37.4% | 42.6% | 5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.02 | 31.4% | 28.8% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.04 | 31.2% | 28.6% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Napoli
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Napoli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NapoliWWDWW
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ComoDDDDW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
NapoliComo
66.7Attack33.3
100.0Defence66.7
100.0Form33.3
88.7Power45.3
1.57xG0.95