Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Napoli · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Napoli 1-0 Bologna
Original prediction
Napoli
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 51.3% | 45.8% | -5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 26.8% | 27.0% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 4.35 | 21.9% | 27.1% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Napoli
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Napoli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NapoliLLLWW
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BolognaDLLLL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NapoliBologna
55.6Attack22.2
44.4Defence55.6
33.3Form11.1
45.5Power32.9
1.53xG1.05