Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SC Braga · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nacional 1-0 SC Braga
Original prediction
SC Braga
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.47 | 14.5% | 24.6% | 10.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.18 | 22.5% | 26.1% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 1.49 | 63.0% | 49.4% | -13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
SC Braga
Probability
49.4%
Model confidence
49.4%
SC Braga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NacionalLLLLL
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SC BragaWLLLD
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
NacionalSC Braga
37.5Attack37.5
25.0Defence58.3
16.7Form45.8
29.1Power50.2
1.02xG1.61