Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Famalicao · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nacional 0-4 Famalicao
Original prediction
Famalicao
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.64 | 25.7% | 34.2% | 8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 28.8% | 28.1% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 45.5% | 37.7% | -7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Famalicao
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Famalicao has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NacionalLLLLW
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FamalicaoDDDLL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
NacionalFamalicao
38.9Attack27.8
38.9Defence61.1
22.2Form22.2
35.6Power40.2
1.15xG1.10