Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nacional · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nacional 2-3 Estrela
Original prediction
Nacional
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 40.3% | 41.4% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 29.0% | 27.6% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.06 | 30.7% | 31.0% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Nacional
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NacionalLWDLD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
EstrelaDDWWD
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
NacionalEstrela
44.4Attack66.7
66.7Defence33.3
44.4Form33.3
53.1Power48.3
1.59xG1.22