Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nacional · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nacional 1-3 Alverca
Original prediction
Nacional
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.70 | 34.9% | 44.2% | 9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 29.2% | 26.4% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.62 | 35.9% | 29.4% | -6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Nacional
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NacionalLLLWD
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AlvercaLDLDL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
NacionalAlverca
40.0Attack33.3
46.7Defence33.3
26.7Form13.3
39.6Power30.2
1.65xG1.08