Municipalvs
CD Motagua
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Central American Cup · 8/26/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CD Motagua · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Municipal 1-1 CD Motagua
Original prediction
CD Motagua
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.30 | 39.1% | 33.6% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 30.1% | 28.2% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.92 | 30.8% | 38.2% | 7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.99 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
CD Motagua
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
CD Motagua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40