Alianzavs
CD Marathon
LIVEWorld · CONCACAF Central American Cup · 10/28/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CD Marathon · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.95 | 30.6% | 27.6% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.0% | 28.1% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.18 | 41.4% | 44.3% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
CD Marathon
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
CD Marathon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AlianzaWLDDL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CD MarathonDWWDL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AlianzaCD Marathon
28.6Attack52.4
57.1Defence66.7
47.6Form52.4
47.5Power57.2
0.83xG1.29