Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mārupe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mārupe 5-0 Tukums II
Original prediction
Mārupe
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 55.8% | 68.7% | 12.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.08 | 22.1% | 15.9% | -6.2 pts |
| Away | 4.08 | 22.1% | 15.4% | -6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.3–07%
Predicted outcome
Mārupe
Probability
68.7%
Model confidence
68.7%
Mārupe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MārupeLLWLL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Tukums IILLLDL
GF 5 · GA 23 · avg 1.00/4.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
MārupeTukums II
50.9Attack42.6
43.9Defence0.0
43.9Form22.2
46.6Power24.1
3.10xG1.26