Mārupevs
Riga Mariners
COMPLETEDLatvia · 1. Liga · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga Mariners · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mārupe 1-6 Riga Mariners
Original prediction
Riga Mariners
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.15 | 21.8% | 24.5% | 2.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.32 | 21.0% | 20.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 1.58 | 57.2% | 55.2% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
Riga Mariners
Probability
55.2%
Model confidence
55.2%
Riga Mariners has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 14 · GA 13 · avg 2.80/2.60