Mārupevs
Riga FC II
COMPLETEDLatvia · 1. Liga · 9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mārupe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mārupe 0-0 Riga FC II
Original prediction
Mārupe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 41.3% | 54.0% | 12.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.3% | 20.1% | -5.1 pts |
| Away | 2.68 | 33.4% | 25.9% | -7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.54 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Mārupe
Probability
54.0%
Model confidence
54.0%
Mārupe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MārupeWLLWL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Riga FC IIDWDLL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
MārupeRiga FC II
56.7Attack48.3
46.7Defence38.3
46.7Form41.7
49.4Power44.8
2.33xG1.43