Mortonvs
Raith Rovers
COMPLETEDScotland · Championship · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Raith Rovers · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Morton 0-1 Raith Rovers, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Morton 1-2 Raith Rovers
Original prediction
Raith Rovers
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.43 | 16.9% | 15.2% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.88 | 23.6% | 23.9% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 1.54 | 59.5% | 60.9% | 1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Projected Score
Morton 0–1 Raith Rovers
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Raith Rovers
Probability
60.9%
Model confidence
60.9%
Raith Rovers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MortonLLLLD
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Raith RoversLDWWL
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
MortonRaith Rovers
16.7Attack45.8
37.5Defence79.2
4.2Form58.3
23.5Power61.0
0.48xG1.65