Mortáguavs
Benfica Castelo Branco
COMPLETEDPortugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mortágua · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mortágua 0-1 Benfica Castelo Branco
Original prediction
Mortágua
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 38.6% | 49.4% | 10.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.9% | 25.4% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 32.5% | 25.3% | -7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Mortágua
Probability
49.4%
Model confidence
49.4%
Mortágua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40