Moreirensevs
Maritimo
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 9/14/2026, 7:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maritimo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moreirense 3-1 Maritimo
Original prediction
Maritimo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.67 | 35.2% | 30.6% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 30.2% | 26.8% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 2.71 | 34.6% | 42.6% | 8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Maritimo
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Maritimo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60