Moreirensevs
GIL Vicente
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 10/9/2026, 5:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
GIL Vicente · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moreirense 0-1 GIL Vicente
Original prediction
GIL Vicente
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 00:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.39 | 27.7% | 29.1% | 1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 30.4% | 29.4% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.24 | 41.9% | 41.5% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
GIL Vicente
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
GIL Vicente has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00