Moreirensevs
Benfica
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 9/9/2026, 7:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Moreirense 0-4 Benfica
Original prediction
Benfica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 14.98 | 6.3% | 17.4% | 11.1 pts |
| Draw | 7.80 | 12.1% | 20.8% | 8.7 pts |
| Away | 1.15 | 81.6% | 61.9% | -19.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Benfica
Probability
61.9%
Model confidence
61.9%
Benfica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MoreirenseLWLDL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BenficaWWWWW
GF 18 · GA 3 · avg 3.60/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
MoreirenseBenfica
33.3Attack100.0
33.3Defence75.0
33.3Form83.3
36.3Power81.7
0.92xG2.05