Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Monza 2-3 Udinese
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.04 | 31.1% | 33.1% | 2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 30.8% | 29.3% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.49 | 38.1% | 37.5% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
29.3%
Model confidence
37.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MonzaLWDLW
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
UdineseDWWWL
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
MonzaUdinese
33.3Attack33.3
0.0Defence66.7
0.0Form33.3
15.3Power45.3
1.17xG1.30