Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sassuolo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Monza 2-1 Sassuolo
Original prediction
Sassuolo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.71 | 35.0% | 31.3% | -3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 28.5% | 25.3% | -3.2 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 36.5% | 43.4% | 7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Sassuolo
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Sassuolo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MonzaLDWLL
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
SassuoloWDDWL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
MonzaSassuolo
50.0Attack66.7
8.3Defence41.7
8.3Form58.3
25.7Power58.8
1.45xG1.99