Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cagliari · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Monza 4-0 Cagliari
Original prediction
Cagliari
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.34 | 40.6% | 29.5% | -11.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 29.5% | 26.6% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 3.17 | 30.0% | 43.8% | 13.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Cagliari
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Cagliari has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MonzaLDLWL
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
CagliariDWWWL
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MonzaCagliari
50.0Attack33.3
16.7Defence83.3
22.2Form72.2
33.0Power66.5
0.97xG1.54