Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Montrose · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Montrose 3-2 Dundee II
Original prediction
Montrose
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.08 | 85.2% | 63.3% | -21.8 pts |
| Draw | 8.75 | 10.5% | 19.4% | 9.0 pts |
| Away | 20.98 | 4.4% | 17.2% | 12.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Montrose
Probability
63.3%
Model confidence
63.3%
Montrose has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MontroseWWWWL
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 5/5
Dundee IILLLLL
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MontroseDundee II
83.3Attack33.3
100.0Defence0.0
100.0Form0.0
94.8Power16.3
2.80xG1.16