Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vihren · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Montana 1-4 Vihren
Original prediction
Vihren
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 36.7% | 33.4% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 28.5% | 26.4% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.57 | 34.8% | 40.2% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Vihren
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Vihren has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MontanaDWLWL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
VihrenWWDWD
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MontanaVihren
57.1Attack71.4
61.9Defence66.7
52.4Form71.4
57.9Power70.8
1.21xG1.45