Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 3-0 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Monarcas 1-1 Tlaxcala
Original prediction
Monarcas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 63.1% | 64.6% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.36 | 21.0% | 19.0% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 5.75 | 15.9% | 16.4% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.36 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.3–08%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
64.6%
Model confidence
64.6%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MonarcasLWWWW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TlaxcalaWLWDW
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MonarcasTlaxcala
66.7Attack60.0
63.3Defence26.7
70.0Form36.7
67.2Power42.1
3.41xG1.12