Monarcasvs
Leones Negros UDG
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/20/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Monarcas 2-0 Leones Negros UDG
Original prediction
Monarcas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 54.2% | 46.6% | -7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 24.8% | 22.6% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 4.36 | 21.0% | 30.8% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.68 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00