Monarcasvs
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/6/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Monarcas 4-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Original prediction
Monarcas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 61.4% | 58.1% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.15 | 22.0% | 22.9% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 5.52 | 16.6% | 19.0% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
58.1%
Model confidence
58.1%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00