Monarcasvs
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
SCHEDULEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 9/6/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Monarcas are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 33.7-point power-rating edge (69.4 v 35.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the Liga de Expansión MX, favouring a draw with 10.4% confidence, a 57% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
22.3%
Model confidence
10.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60