Modenavs
Hellas Verona
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie B · 10/11/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Modena · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Modena 3-2 Hellas Verona
Original prediction
Modena
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 46.6% | 45.5% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 28.3% | 26.8% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.73 | 25.1% | 27.6% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Modena
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Modena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ModenaWDLWW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Hellas VeronaWWLWW
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
ModenaHellas Verona
53.3Attack66.7
73.3Defence53.3
66.7Form46.7
65.7Power53.8
1.54xG1.08