Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Modena · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Modena 2-1 Empoli
Original prediction
Modena
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 57.5% | 45.2% | -12.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 25.2% | 27.3% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 5.38 | 17.3% | 27.5% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Modena
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Modena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ModenaDLWWL
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
EmpoliLWLWD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ModenaEmpoli
36.0Attack41.2
58.8Defence52.6
41.2Form36.0
47.6Power44.7
1.10xG0.92