Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Modena · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Modena 0-0 Avellino, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Modena 0-1 Avellino
Original prediction
Modena
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 54.1% | 47.2% | -6.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 27.1% | 28.1% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 4.96 | 18.8% | 24.7% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.9 pts
Projected Score
Modena 0–0 Avellino
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Modena
Probability
47.2%
Model confidence
47.2%
Modena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ModenaWWLDW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AvellinoWLLDL
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ModenaAvellino
36.0Attack36.8
58.8Defence50.4
41.2Form41.9
47.6Power45.3
1.15xG0.82