Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mirassol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mirassol 2-2 Vitoria
Original prediction
Mirassol
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 52.9% | 43.6% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 26.3% | 28.3% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 4.53 | 20.8% | 28.1% | 7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.58 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Mirassol
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Mirassol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MirassolWLDDD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
VitoriaWLLLL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
MirassolVitoria
37.2Attack32.1
48.7Defence52.6
35.9Form41.0
43.4Power43.8
1.13xG0.90