Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Mirassol 0-0 Sao Paulo, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Mirassol 1-1 Sao Paulo
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 40.7% | 34.8% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.9% | 28.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.08 | 30.4% | 36.4% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.24 · Draw 2.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.1 pts
Projected Score
Mirassol 0–0 Sao Paulo
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
28.8%
Model confidence
36.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MirassolWLDWW
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Sao PauloWWLLW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MirassolSao Paulo
38.7Attack38.7
52.7Defence62.4
38.7Form45.2
45.8Power50.8
0.92xG1.02