Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Mirassol are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLLDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Palmeiras are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Palmeiras hold a 22.5-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 67.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.2% in the Serie A, while Palmeiras holds the strongest overall chance at 60% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 39% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
60.1%
Model confidence
16.2%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40