Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (15%), 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mirassol 1-1 Palmeiras
Original prediction
Palmeiras
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.59 | 26.0% | 14.8% | -11.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 28.5% | 21.7% | -6.8 pts |
| Away | 2.05 | 45.5% | 63.5% | 18.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.27 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–215%
- 2.0–115%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
63.5%
Model confidence
63.5%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MirassolDDLDL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
PalmeirasWWWLD
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MirassolPalmeiras
37.7Attack61.1
47.8Defence72.2
34.8Form70.8
42.9Power68.9
0.62xG1.89