Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Botafogo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mirassol 2-0 Botafogo
Original prediction
Botafogo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 45.2% | 36.8% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 27.2% | 24.6% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.39 | 27.6% | 38.6% | 11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Botafogo
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Botafogo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MirassolDWLDD
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
BotafogoWDDLL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MirassolBotafogo
38.3Attack50.6
48.1Defence46.9
35.8Form43.2
43.5Power48.4
1.28xG1.46