Minnesota United FCvs
St. Louis City
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/17/2026, 8:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
St. Louis City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Minnesota United FC 3-2 St. Louis City
Original prediction
St. Louis City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 38.3% | 27.4% | -10.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 25.2% | 20.6% | -4.6 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 36.5% | 52.0% | 15.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
St. Louis City
Probability
52.0%
Model confidence
52.0%
St. Louis City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 14 · avg 1.80/2.80
GF 15 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/0.60