Mineros de Zacatecasvs
Leones Negros UDG
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 10/25/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leones Negros UDG · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (7%), 1-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Mineros de Zacatecas 0-2 Leones Negros UDG
Original prediction
Leones Negros UDG
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 46.3% | 36.4% | -9.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 25.6% | 23.3% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.24 | 28.1% | 40.3% | 12.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.1–27%
- 3.1–16%
Predicted outcome
Leones Negros UDG
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Leones Negros UDG has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80