Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Millwall · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Millwall 0-3 Wrexham
Original prediction
Millwall
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.24 | 42.0% | 45.0% | 3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 28.4% | 26.7% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.19 | 29.6% | 28.2% | -1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Millwall
Probability
45.0%
Model confidence
45.0%
Millwall has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MillwallLWWWD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
WrexhamLDDLW
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
MillwallWrexham
66.7Attack33.3
44.4Defence55.6
66.7Form22.2
58.3Power40.2
1.71xG1.10