Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
West Ham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Millwall 2-2 West Ham
Original prediction
West Ham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.61 | 20.4% | 25.6% | 5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 24.1% | 21.7% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 1.69 | 55.5% | 52.7% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.89 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
West Ham
Probability
52.7%
Model confidence
52.7%
West Ham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MillwallDLLWL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
West HamLWWWW
GF 18 · GA 7 · avg 3.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
MillwallWest Ham
61.9Attack95.2
38.1Defence57.1
47.6Form66.7
48.3Power70.4
1.54xG2.29