Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Swansea · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Millwall 0-1 Swansea
Original prediction
Swansea
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.42 | 38.9% | 30.3% | -8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 28.5% | 28.1% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 32.6% | 41.6% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.88 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Swansea
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Swansea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MillwallWDDLL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SwanseaWWWLD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MillwallSwansea
59.3Attack55.6
44.4Defence74.1
51.9Form74.1
51.6Power69.3
0.99xG1.73