Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newcastle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Millwall 0-1 Newcastle
Original prediction
Newcastle
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.03 | 15.5% | 31.5% | 16.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.43 | 21.0% | 26.3% | 5.2 pts |
| Away | 1.47 | 63.5% | 42.2% | -21.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Newcastle
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Newcastle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MillwallWLLWW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
NewcastleDWWDD
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
MillwallNewcastle
33.3Attack100.0
83.3Defence33.3
66.7Form100.0
64.8Power80.3
1.45xG1.38