Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Millwall · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Millwall 2-2 Lincoln
Original prediction
Millwall
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 56.8% | 65.6% | 8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 24.4% | 20.3% | -4.1 pts |
| Away | 4.98 | 18.8% | 14.1% | -4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.84 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Millwall
Probability
65.6%
Model confidence
65.6%
Millwall has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MillwallLWDDL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LincolnLLLWW
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
MillwallLincoln
53.3Attack23.3
46.7Defence43.3
46.7Form36.7
48.8Power37.1
2.00xG0.74