Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Millwall · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Millwall 4-0 Bolton
Original prediction
Millwall
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 49.0% | 45.9% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.5% | 27.0% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 4.00 | 23.4% | 27.1% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.91 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Millwall
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Millwall has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MillwallLLWWW
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
BoltonLLDWL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MillwallBolton
66.7Attack33.3
44.4Defence58.3
66.7Form33.3
58.3Power44.6
1.63xG1.08