Middlesbroughvs
Wolves
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Middlesbrough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Middlesbrough 1-0 Wolves
Original prediction
Middlesbrough
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 44.4% | 39.6% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 26.0% | 26.7% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.18 | 29.6% | 33.7% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Middlesbrough
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Middlesbrough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40