Middlesbroughvs
West Brom
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 8/29/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Middlesbrough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Middlesbrough 3-1 West Brom
Original prediction
Middlesbrough
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 53.8% | 37.3% | -16.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 25.1% | 26.8% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 4.46 | 21.1% | 35.9% | 14.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Middlesbrough
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Middlesbrough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20