Middlesbroughvs
Norwich
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Middlesbrough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Middlesbrough 4-3 Norwich
Original prediction
Middlesbrough
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 51.2% | 45.8% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 24.3% | 26.4% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 3.84 | 24.4% | 27.9% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.83 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Middlesbrough
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Middlesbrough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00