Middlesbroughvs
Millwall
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/15/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Middlesbrough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Middlesbrough 2-2 Millwall
Original prediction
Middlesbrough
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 62.9% | 52.1% | -10.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.50 | 21.0% | 23.8% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 5.89 | 16.1% | 24.1% | 8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.50 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Middlesbrough
Probability
52.1%
Model confidence
52.1%
Middlesbrough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40