Middlesbroughvs
Cardiff
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 10/17/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Middlesbrough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Middlesbrough 2-2 Cardiff
Original prediction
Middlesbrough
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 61.8% | 61.2% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.66 | 20.1% | 18.8% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 5.15 | 18.1% | 20.1% | 1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.66 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Middlesbrough
Probability
61.2%
Model confidence
61.2%
Middlesbrough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20