Metal Kharkivvs
Yarud Mariupol'
COMPLETEDUkraine · Persha Liga · 10/23/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Yarud Mariupol' · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Metal Kharkiv 0-2 Yarud Mariupol'
Original prediction
Yarud Mariupol'
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.02 | 29.8% | 28.1% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.0% | 29.1% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.19 | 41.1% | 42.7% | 1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–114%
Predicted outcome
Yarud Mariupol'
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
Yarud Mariupol' has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80