Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spaeri · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (14%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Meshakhte 2-2 Spaeri
Original prediction
Spaeri
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.22 | 28.0% | 23.6% | -4.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.5% | 26.1% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.07 | 43.5% | 50.2% | 6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.17 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–114%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Spaeri
Probability
50.2%
Model confidence
50.2%
Spaeri has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
MeshakhteWLLLL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SpaeriLLDLL
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MeshakhteSpaeri
24.6Attack43.5
42.0Defence49.3
20.3Form33.3
31.8Power43.3
0.84xG1.43