Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aşgabat · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Merw are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 3.20 conceded, while Aşgabat are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 3.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Aşgabat hold a 2.9-point power-rating edge (27.0 v 29.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.2% in the Ýokary Liga, while Aşgabat holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aşgabat
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
10.2%
Aşgabat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 16 · avg 0.60/3.20
GF 11 · GA 17 · avg 2.20/3.40